A combined long-form note covering the month in news, the cross-venue perp landscape, and the macro backdrop.
What moved the market this month — themes, headline events, and the stories worth tracking into next month.
Overview of the market open interest and volume in the last 30 days.
| TODAY | 1M AGO | 3M AGO | 12M AGO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | $188B | $190B -0.7% | $184B +2.5% | $154B +22.5% |
| USDC | $76B | $77B -1.8% | $75B +0.9% | $61B +25.2% |
| Total | $264B | $267B -1.0% | $259B +2.0% | $214B +23.2% |
Rates, FX, equity, commodities, and credit.
| Instrument | MTD | 3M | YTD | 12M | LAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| › Equities· 5 | +7.3% | +11.3% | +17.9% | +41.8% | 5 items |
| S&P 500 | +5.1% | +10.1% | +10.7% | +28.2% | 7,580 |
| Nasdaq | +8.4% | +18.6% | +16.1% | +41.1% | 26,973 |
| EuroStoxx 50 | +2.9% | +1.1% | +4.4% | +12.7% | 6,051 |
| Nikkei 225 | +12.9% | +15.3% | +33.0% | +76.3% | 66,934 |
| MSCI EM (EEM) | +7.2% | +11.5% | +25.4% | +50.7% | 68.60 |
| › Rates· 7 | mixed | mixed | mixed | mixed | 7 items |
| US 1M yield | -2bp | -4bp | -4bp | -63bp | 3.70% |
| US 3M yield | +0bp | -0bp | +4bp | -64bp | 3.59% |
| US 1Y yield | +13bp | +31bp | +37bp | -26bp | 3.85% |
| US 5Y yield | +13bp | +53bp | +43bp | +17bp | 4.15% |
| US 10Y yield | +6bp | +41bp | +29bp | +4bp | 4.45% |
| US 30Y yield | +1bp | +30bp | +15bp | +6bp | 4.99% |
| Long UST (TLT) | +0.2% | -4.3% | -1.6% | -0.6% | 85.76 |
| › Credit· 2 | +0.2% | -0.7% | -0.6% | +1.2% | 2 items |
| High Yield (HYG) | -0.1% | +0.0% | -0.4% | +0.9% | 80.31 |
| Inv. Grade (LQD) | +0.5% | -1.4% | -0.8% | +1.5% | 109.4 |
| › FX· 4 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +3.1% | 4 items |
| DXY | +0.8% | +0.5% | +0.6% | -0.4% | 98.91 |
| EUR/USD | -0.7% | -0.9% | -0.8% | +2.4% | 1.16 |
| USD/JPY | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +10.8% | 159.4 |
| GBP/USD | -1.1% | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.4% | 1.35 |
| › Commodities· 8 | -1.7% | +2.7% | +16.7% | +48.2% | 8 items |
| WTI Crude | -16.9% | +22.6% | +52.1% | +43.7% | 87.36 |
| Brent Crude | -19.3% | +18.4% | +51.3% | +44.1% | 92.05 |
| Nat Gas | +18.9% | +11.1% | -10.7% | -4.6% | 3.29 |
| Gold | -1.2% | -13.9% | +5.4% | +38.7% | 4,560 |
| Silver | +2.8% | -14.3% | +7.8% | +129.9% | 75.62 |
| Platinum | -2.9% | -16.9% | -5.5% | +82.8% | 1,922 |
| Copper | +7.3% | +7.9% | +13.0% | +36.7% | 6.36 |
| Wheat | -2.1% | +6.3% | +20.4% | +14.3% | 610.5 |
| › Vol· 5 | -7.5% | -17.7% | +24.7% | +7.9% | 5 items |
| VIX | -9.3% | -28.5% | +2.5% | -17.5% | 15.32 |
| VXN | +3.6% | -11.1% | +15.4% | +8.2% | 22.58 |
| MOVE | -2.6% | -4.1% | +9.8% | -23.8% | 70.22 |
| OVX | -23.0% | -16.1% | +91.7% | +42.1% | 57.84 |
| GVZ | -6.5% | -28.5% | +4.1% | +30.4% | 24.91 |
| › Crypto· 2 | -8.9% | +1.3% | -25.5% | -26.3% | 2 items |
| Bitcoin | -6.5% | +3.7% | -18.5% | -31.8% | 71,320 |
| Ethereum | -11.2% | -1.2% | -32.5% | -20.8% | 2,003 |
| Instrument | MTD | 3M | YTD | 12M | LAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| › Rates & curve· 3 | mixed | mixed | mixed | mixed | 3 items |
| 10Y - 3MYield curve slope · Fed's preferred recession indicator | +6bp | +41bp | +25bp | +68bp | 0.87% |
| 30Y - 5YLong-end steepness · long-duration term premium | -12bp | -23bp | -27bp | -11bp | 0.84% |
| MOVE / VIX>6 = rate stress dominates, <4 = equity stress dominates | +7.4% | +34.2% | +7.1% | -7.6% | 4.58 |
| › Credit· 1 | -0.6% | +1.5% | +0.4% | -0.5% | 1 items |
| HYG / LQDHY vs IG total return · credit risk preference | -0.6% | +1.5% | +0.4% | -0.5% | 0.73 |
| › Risk appetite· 3 | +1.6% | +8.0% | -0.3% | +12.8% | 3 items |
| Copper / GoldPro-growth vs flight-to-safety · tracks 10Y yields | +8.6% | +25.3% | +7.1% | -1.4% | 0.00 |
| AUDJPYCarry-trade FX pair · classic RORO indicator | +1.2% | +3.5% | +9.3% | +23.5% | 114.4 |
| ETH / BTCIntra-crypto risk-on signal | -5.0% | -4.7% | -17.2% | +16.2% | 0.03 |
| › Equity factor· 3 | +5.4% | +10.7% | +15.4% | +33.8% | 3 items |
| SPHB / SPLVHigh-beta vs low-vol US equity · risk preference | +15.0% | +31.1% | +26.9% | +73.7% | 2.08 |
| IWM / SPYSmall caps vs large caps · domestic risk-on | -0.7% | -0.1% | +6.4% | +10.3% | 0.38 |
| EEM / SPYEM equity vs US · global risk-on | +1.8% | +1.2% | +13.0% | +17.4% | 0.09 |
| › Vol regime· 2 | -9.2% | +0.3% | +44.7% | +31.7% | 2 items |
| VIX9D / VIX>1 = backwardation/stress, <1 = contango/calm | -3.4% | -16.8% | +2.4% | -8.8% | 0.82 |
| OVX / VIXOil vol vs equity vol · geopolitics tell | -15.1% | +17.5% | +87.1% | +72.2% | 3.78 |
| › Energy· 1 | -47.5% | -28.0% | +36.7% | +50.8% | 1 items |
| Brent - WTIRegional supply imbalance · geopolitics premium | -47.5% | -28.0% | +36.7% | +50.8% | 4.69 |
| › FX & dollar· 1 | +2.0% | +16.7% | -4.5% | -28.2% | 1 items |
| DXY / GoldReal-rate proxy · USD strong + Gold weak = high real rates | +2.0% | +16.7% | -4.5% | -28.2% | 0.02 |