A combined long-form note covering the month in news, the cross-venue perp landscape, and the macro backdrop.
What moved the market this month — themes, headline events, and the stories worth tracking into next month.
Overview of the market open interest and volume in the last 30 days.
| TODAY | 1M AGO | 3M AGO | 12M AGO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | $189B | $190B -0.2% | $184B +3.1% | $153B +23.5% |
| USDC | $76B | $78B -1.8% | $75B +1.9% | $61B +24.8% |
| Total | $266B | $268B -0.7% | $259B +2.8% | $215B +23.9% |
Rates, FX, equity, commodities, and credit.
| Instrument | MTD | 3M | YTD | 12M | LAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| › Equities· 5 | +6.3% | +8.2% | +16.7% | +41.1% | 5 items |
| S&P 500 | +4.5% | +8.5% | +10.0% | +29.8% | 7,533 |
| Nasdaq | +7.2% | +15.3% | +14.8% | +42.5% | 26,691 |
| EuroStoxx 50 | +3.5% | -1.4% | +5.0% | +12.8% | 6,084 |
| Nikkei 225 | +9.6% | +10.9% | +29.1% | +73.2% | 64,996 |
| MSCI EM (EEM) | +6.6% | +7.7% | +24.6% | +47.5% | 68.19 |
| › Rates· 5 | mixed | mixed | mixed | mixed | 5 items |
| US 3M yield | -1bp | -1bp | +3bp | -65bp | 3.58% |
| US 5Y yield | +17bp | +57bp | +47bp | +11bp | 4.19% |
| US 10Y yield | +10bp | +45bp | +33bp | -2bp | 4.49% |
| US 30Y yield | +3bp | +33bp | +18bp | -1bp | 5.02% |
| Long UST (TLT) | -0.5% | -5.3% | -2.3% | +0.8% | 85.18 |
| › Credit· 2 | -0.2% | -1.8% | -0.9% | +1.9% | 2 items |
| High Yield (HYG) | -0.4% | -1.0% | -0.7% | +1.5% | 80.10 |
| Inv. Grade (LQD) | +0.0% | -2.5% | -1.2% | +2.4% | 108.9 |
| › FX· 4 | +0.2% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +3.3% | 4 items |
| DXY | +1.1% | +1.5% | +0.9% | +0.2% | 99.16 |
| EUR/USD | -0.9% | -1.3% | -1.0% | +2.1% | 1.16 |
| USD/JPY | +1.5% | +2.2% | +1.8% | +11.6% | 159.3 |
| GBP/USD | -1.0% | -0.3% | -0.0% | -0.8% | 1.35 |
| › Commodities· 8 | -0.4% | +7.4% | +19.5% | +48.6% | 8 items |
| WTI Crude | -10.7% | +43.4% | +63.4% | +52.5% | 93.82 |
| Brent Crude | -14.9% | +36.9% | +59.4% | +49.7% | 97.00 |
| Nat Gas | +11.0% | +3.5% | -16.7% | -7.9% | 3.07 |
| Gold | -2.1% | -13.3% | +4.4% | +34.3% | 4,516 |
| Silver | +4.1% | -15.9% | +9.1% | +128.8% | 76.51 |
| Platinum | -1.3% | -16.0% | -4.0% | +79.6% | 1,953 |
| Copper | +8.1% | +7.1% | +13.7% | +33.2% | 6.40 |
| Wheat | +2.8% | +13.4% | +26.5% | +18.2% | 641.5 |
| › Vol· 5 | +0.3% | +2.0% | +37.5% | +3.5% | 5 items |
| VIX | -0.5% | -6.2% | +12.4% | -24.6% | 16.81 |
| VXN | +8.4% | +2.9% | +20.7% | -6.6% | 23.61 |
| MOVE | +8.8% | +25.6% | +22.6% | -22.3% | 78.43 |
| OVX | -8.5% | +16.5% | +127.8% | +59.3% | 68.72 |
| GVZ | -6.8% | -28.9% | +3.8% | +11.5% | 24.84 |
| › Crypto· 2 | -2.1% | +8.8% | -19.9% | -23.1% | 2 items |
| Bitcoin | +1.5% | +14.0% | -11.5% | -29.2% | 77,444 |
| Ethereum | -5.6% | +3.7% | -28.2% | -16.9% | 2,130 |
| Instrument | MTD | 3M | YTD | 12M | LAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| › Rates & curve· 3 | mixed | mixed | mixed | mixed | 3 items |
| 10Y - 3MYield curve slope · Fed's preferred recession indicator | +11bp | +45bp | +30bp | +63bp | 0.91% |
| 30Y - 5YLong-end steepness · long-duration term premium | -14bp | -25bp | -29bp | -12bp | 0.83% |
| MOVE / VIX>6 = rate stress dominates, <4 = equity stress dominates | +10.1% | +34.9% | +9.8% | +3.7% | 4.70 |
| › Credit· 1 | -0.4% | +1.5% | +0.6% | -1.0% | 1 items |
| HYG / LQDHY vs IG total return · credit risk preference | -0.4% | +1.5% | +0.6% | -1.0% | 0.74 |
| › Risk appetite· 3 | +1.5% | +6.1% | -0.3% | +13.4% | 3 items |
| Copper / GoldPro-growth vs flight-to-safety · tracks 10Y yields | +10.4% | +23.5% | +9.0% | -0.8% | 0.00 |
| AUDJPYCarry-trade FX pair · classic RORO indicator | +1.0% | +3.8% | +9.0% | +23.5% | 114.2 |
| ETH / BTCIntra-crypto risk-on signal | -7.0% | -9.0% | -18.9% | +17.4% | 0.03 |
| › Equity factor· 3 | +3.7% | +7.0% | +13.5% | +29.7% | 3 items |
| SPHB / SPLVHigh-beta vs low-vol US equity · risk preference | +9.4% | +20.4% | +20.6% | +65.1% | 1.98 |
| IWM / SPYSmall caps vs large caps · domestic risk-on | -0.2% | +1.1% | +6.9% | +10.3% | 0.39 |
| EEM / SPYEM equity vs US · global risk-on | +1.9% | -0.7% | +13.1% | +13.6% | 0.09 |
| › Vol regime· 2 | -1.5% | +11.3% | +56.9% | +53.9% | 2 items |
| VIX9D / VIX>1 = backwardation/stress, <1 = contango/calm | +5.0% | -1.7% | +11.2% | -3.5% | 0.89 |
| OVX / VIXOil vol vs equity vol · geopolitics tell | -8.0% | +24.3% | +102.6% | +111.3% | 4.09 |
| › Energy· 1 | -64.4% | -41.4% | -7.3% | -2.2% | 1 items |
| Brent - WTIRegional supply imbalance · geopolitics premium | -64.4% | -41.4% | -7.3% | -2.2% | 3.18 |
| › FX & dollar· 1 | +3.3% | +17.0% | -3.4% | -25.5% | 1 items |
| DXY / GoldReal-rate proxy · USD strong + Gold weak = high real rates | +3.3% | +17.0% | -3.4% | -25.5% | 0.02 |