A combined long-form note covering the month in news, the cross-venue perp landscape, and the macro backdrop.
What moved the market this month — themes, headline events, and the stories worth tracking into next month.
Overview of the market open interest and volume in the last 30 days.
| TODAY | 1M AGO | 3M AGO | 12M AGO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | $183B | $183B +0.1% | $188B -2.4% | $168B +9.2% |
| USDC | $74B | $72B +2.6% | $76B -2.7% | $71B +3.7% |
| Total | $257B | $255B +0.8% | $264B -2.5% | $239B +7.5% |
Rates, FX, equity, commodities, and credit.
| Instrument | MTD | 3M | YTD | 12M | LAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| › Equities· 5 | +3.0% | -0.5% | +18.1% | +30.3% | 5 items |
| S&P 500 | +2.6% | +1.0% | +12.3% | +19.0% | 7,686 |
| Nasdaq | +3.9% | -2.7% | +13.5% | +22.9% | 26,371 |
| EuroStoxx 50 | +1.0% | +5.1% | +10.8% | +20.0% | 6,420 |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.9% | -0.8% | +31.5% | +55.0% | 66,215 |
| MSCI EM (EEM) | +4.6% | -5.3% | +22.5% | +34.4% | 67.02 |
| › Rates· 7 | mixed | mixed | mixed | mixed | 7 items |
| US 1M yield | +7bp | +13bp | +11bp | -56bp | 3.85% |
| US 3M yield | +5bp | +11bp | +19bp | -31bp | 3.73% |
| US 1Y yield | +10bp | +36bp | +70bp | +35bp | 4.18% |
| US 5Y yield | +5bp | +33bp | +79bp | +81bp | 4.51% |
| US 10Y yield | +1bp | +30bp | +59bp | +53bp | 4.76% |
| US 30Y yield | -3bp | +28bp | +41bp | +33bp | 5.25% |
| Long UST (TLT) | +0.3% | -3.7% | -5.3% | -4.7% | 82.52 |
| › Credit· 2 | +0.2% | -1.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% | 2 items |
| High Yield (HYG) | +0.4% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -1.3% | 79.81 |
| Inv. Grade (LQD) | -0.0% | -2.5% | -3.6% | -3.3% | 106.2 |
| › FX· 4 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.7% | +2.5% | 4 items |
| DXY | -0.4% | +0.2% | +1.2% | +1.7% | 99.43 |
| EUR/USD | +0.8% | -0.0% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 1.16 |
| USD/JPY | -0.3% | -0.1% | +2.1% | +8.6% | 159.7 |
| GBP/USD | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.3% | 1.36 |
| › Commodities· 8 | +7.8% | -2.3% | +16.1% | +35.0% | 8 items |
| WTI Crude | +1.3% | -8.5% | +49.4% | +34.0% | 85.76 |
| Brent Crude | +0.4% | -5.7% | +48.7% | +32.8% | 90.49 |
| Nat Gas | +6.8% | -7.3% | -20.4% | -2.1% | 2.93 |
| Gold | +9.4% | -1.3% | +2.4% | +27.6% | 4,431 |
| Silver | +15.0% | -12.1% | -5.6% | +64.7% | 66.22 |
| Platinum | +8.4% | -7.7% | -12.1% | +31.0% | 1,788 |
| Copper | +2.4% | -0.8% | +17.1% | +45.9% | 6.59 |
| Wheat | +18.3% | +25.5% | +49.2% | +46.0% | 756.5 |
| › Vol· 5 | -12.5% | -8.2% | +14.3% | +15.1% | 5 items |
| VIX | -6.7% | -5.4% | -0.2% | -2.9% | 14.92 |
| VXN | -22.4% | -13.3% | +3.2% | +5.6% | 20.18 |
| MOVE | -9.3% | +2.6% | +17.8% | -5.1% | 75.32 |
| OVX | -28.8% | -24.6% | +48.9% | +37.6% | 44.91 |
| GVZ | +4.7% | -0.2% | +2.0% | +40.3% | 24.40 |
| › Crypto· 2 | +26.6% | +23.1% | -15.0% | -36.7% | 2 items |
| Bitcoin | +23.2% | +16.0% | -11.5% | -28.5% | 77,404 |
| Ethereum | +30.0% | +30.2% | -18.5% | -44.9% | 2,418 |
| Instrument | MTD | 3M | YTD | 12M | LAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| › Rates & curve· 3 | mixed | mixed | mixed | mixed | 3 items |
| 10Y - 3MYield curve slope · Fed's preferred recession indicator | -4bp | +19bp | +41bp | +84bp | 1.03% |
| 30Y - 5YLong-end steepness · long-duration term premium | -7bp | -5bp | -38bp | -48bp | 0.74% |
| MOVE / VIX>6 = rate stress dominates, <4 = equity stress dominates | -2.8% | +8.4% | +18.0% | -2.3% | 5.05 |
| › Credit· 1 | +0.5% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +2.0% | 1 items |
| HYG / LQDHY vs IG total return · credit risk preference | +0.5% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +2.0% | 0.75 |
| › Risk appetite· 3 | +0.3% | +4.1% | +5.3% | +3.5% | 3 items |
| Copper / GoldPro-growth vs flight-to-safety · tracks 10Y yields | -6.4% | +0.5% | +14.3% | +14.4% | 0.00 |
| AUDJPYCarry-trade FX pair · classic RORO indicator | +1.8% | -0.2% | +9.4% | +19.0% | 114.5 |
| ETH / BTCIntra-crypto risk-on signal | +5.5% | +12.2% | -7.9% | -23.0% | 0.03 |
| › Equity factor· 3 | +2.3% | -5.0% | +11.6% | +18.5% | 3 items |
| SPHB / SPLVHigh-beta vs low-vol US equity · risk preference | +6.8% | -8.4% | +19.6% | +37.3% | 1.96 |
| IWM / SPYSmall caps vs large caps · domestic risk-on | -1.7% | -0.2% | +6.2% | +5.1% | 0.38 |
| EEM / SPYEM equity vs US · global risk-on | +1.8% | -6.3% | +8.9% | +13.0% | 0.09 |
| › Vol regime· 2 | -11.8% | -6.5% | +30.5% | +25.0% | 2 items |
| VIX9D / VIX>1 = backwardation/stress, <1 = contango/calm | +0.0% | +7.3% | +11.8% | +8.4% | 0.90 |
| OVX / VIXOil vol vs equity vol · geopolitics tell | -23.7% | -20.3% | +49.2% | +41.7% | 3.01 |
| › Energy· 1 | -13.2% | +111.2% | +37.9% | +15.1% | 1 items |
| Brent - WTIRegional supply imbalance · geopolitics premium | -13.2% | +111.2% | +37.9% | +15.1% | 4.73 |
| › FX & dollar· 1 | -9.0% | +1.5% | -1.2% | -20.3% | 1 items |
| DXY / GoldReal-rate proxy · USD strong + Gold weak = high real rates | -9.0% | +1.5% | -1.2% | -20.3% | 0.02 |